- Pagi ini Dow ditutup menguat tipis hanya +0.04, sehingga kemungkinan besar IHSG akan berhadapan dengan resist dan psikologis level 4000 kembali.
- Namun bila IHSG sanggup tembus level 4000, berpeluang tembus level 4040, karena sektor mining menjadi pemicunya, selain itu saham BBNI dan TLKM sudah berkurang tekanan jualnya, tinggal satu lagi yaitu saham BMRI.
- Banyak riset-riset asing yang berkeluaran dalam 1-2 hari ini, saya copy-paste dari berbagai sumber dengan hasil ringkasannya saja sebagai berikut :
1. Credit Suisse : Astra International : Downgrade to UNDERPERFORM
We reduce our target price from Rp78,790 to Rp65,890, based on SOTP, implying 13.9x 12E P/E, in line with the 12E P/E implied by our index target for JCI of 4,400. We see the risk of de-rating from ASII’s auto division given the current demanding valuation level.
2. Credit Suisse: Indonesia Coal Sector - Cheaper option.
● The coal sector has been underperforming the Indonesian market trading at 10x FY12E P/E. The sector now trades at a 28% discount to the JCI. Compared to other regional players, Indonesian coal stocks offer a cheaper option, given that they
trade at a 13% discount to their Chinese peers.
● We are bullish on our coal price assumptions as we still see strong demand from China and India . The risk is on the supply side from Indonesia as domestic consumption is set to increase with new power plants coming on stream to support the country’s
economic growth.
● The risk to our call would be if railway infrastructure in Mongolia , India, and at PTBA were completed on schedule, which would bring a lot of coal to the market.
● Our top picks in the sector are ITMG, HRUM and PTBA. HRUM has a more attractive valuation, with strong volume growth and not much cost increase as it is operating relatively new mines. ITMG provides better liquidity and no corporate governance issues.
CS picks in the sector, in the order of preference, is:
Indo Tambangraya (ITMG, O, PT Rp50,000): Still Looks Attractive After Earnings Cut
Harum Energy (HRUM, O, PT Rp10,000): Strong Cash Flow and Volume Growth
Bukit Asam (PTBA, O, PT Rp25,000): Railway Projects to Materialize
3. CITI : Bank Mandiri (Persero) (BMRI.JK) : Bond Yields and Key Takeaways from Analyst Day
We use DDM to value Indonesian bank stocks. Our target price for BMRI of Rp7,650 uses a 2012E DPS of Rp197. We assume that BMRI will maintain a 35% payout ratio and 14% ustainable growth. We use a sustainable growth rate of 14% due to an improving asset mix and the bank's strategy of growing both loans and deposits. Our cost of equity assumption is 16.4%, based on a 9.7% risk-free rate. This is avg. of low of 6.4% and 2008-09 high risk period of 13.3% and a beta of 1.15x (1-year historic). Our target price implies a 2012E P/E of 13.6x and 2012E P/B of 2.5x.
4. CIMB : Bank Mandiri (BMRI.IJ/BMRI.JK) :
No.2in micro lending by 2014
- Mandiri is steadfast about capturing more share in the micro and retailmarkets.Indeed,while negative market sentiments about yieldand asset quality continue to pressure its share price, we believe its core business provides some upside.
- Mandiri has underperformed the market by 8% YTD, particularly after the heavy corrections over the past one week on the back of apparent market fears of lower yields. We maintain our OUTPERFORM call and target price of Rp9,400 (GGM, ROE: 22%, CoE: 16.2%, g: 12.7%).
- CIMB mempertahankan rating Bank Mandiri (BMRI) pada OUTPERFORM dengan target harga Rp9400. BMRI saat ini cukup gencar untuk masuk ke pasar mikro dan retail. Kredit mikro di BMRI tumbuh 60% yoy pada 2011 dan sekitar 4% dari total loan, dan menyumbang 14% dari NIM. Rencana BMRI adalah menjadi pemimpin kredit mikro no 2 pada 2014. Manajemen mengatakan kredit pada 2011 tumbuh 27% yoy dengan NPL pada 2.5%. Sentimen pasar yang negative saat ini terhadap yield dan asset quality terus menekan harga sahamnya, setelah investor global mengurangi kepemilikan di saham perbankan Indonesia. Kami melihat ini sebagai kesempatan untuk membeli apalagi core business BMRI meyakinkan.
5. CLSA : Indonesian Cement (Sector Outlook).
INTP : BUY with 26% upside to our TP
We re-initiate INTP with a BUY and TP of Rp21,000/sh. We expect INTP to book the highest profit growth for 2012 vspeers given its relatively stable margin, and higher expected sales volume growth due to excess capacity.
INTP is trading at an attractive valuation vs peers, at 14.3x PE12 and 12.0x PE13, at the middle range of its PE and PB bands.
SMGR : “Underperform”: 6% upside to our TP of Rp12,000/sh
We re-initiate SMGR with an U-PF call with TP Rp12,000/sh, given our arguments above. SMGR now trades at premium vs peersgiven a strong performance last year, at 16.5x PE12 and 14.4x PE13. Indocementis trading at 14.3x PE12 and 12.0x PE13. HolcimIndo is trading at 14.9x PE12 and 12.1x PE13. SMGR is also trading at the upper ends of its PEand PB bands.
IHSG
INTP
BMRI
BBRI
BBNI
ITMG
HRUM
- Namun bila IHSG sanggup tembus level 4000, berpeluang tembus level 4040, karena sektor mining menjadi pemicunya, selain itu saham BBNI dan TLKM sudah berkurang tekanan jualnya, tinggal satu lagi yaitu saham BMRI.
- Banyak riset-riset asing yang berkeluaran dalam 1-2 hari ini, saya copy-paste dari berbagai sumber dengan hasil ringkasannya saja sebagai berikut :
1. Credit Suisse : Astra International : Downgrade to UNDERPERFORM
We reduce our target price from Rp78,790 to Rp65,890, based on SOTP, implying 13.9x 12E P/E, in line with the 12E P/E implied by our index target for JCI of 4,400. We see the risk of de-rating from ASII’s auto division given the current demanding valuation level.
2. Credit Suisse: Indonesia Coal Sector - Cheaper option.
● The coal sector has been underperforming the Indonesian market trading at 10x FY12E P/E. The sector now trades at a 28% discount to the JCI. Compared to other regional players, Indonesian coal stocks offer a cheaper option, given that they
trade at a 13% discount to their Chinese peers.
● We are bullish on our coal price assumptions as we still see strong demand from China and India . The risk is on the supply side from Indonesia as domestic consumption is set to increase with new power plants coming on stream to support the country’s
economic growth.
● The risk to our call would be if railway infrastructure in Mongolia , India, and at PTBA were completed on schedule, which would bring a lot of coal to the market.
● Our top picks in the sector are ITMG, HRUM and PTBA. HRUM has a more attractive valuation, with strong volume growth and not much cost increase as it is operating relatively new mines. ITMG provides better liquidity and no corporate governance issues.
CS picks in the sector, in the order of preference, is:
Indo Tambangraya (ITMG, O, PT Rp50,000): Still Looks Attractive After Earnings Cut
Harum Energy (HRUM, O, PT Rp10,000): Strong Cash Flow and Volume Growth
Bukit Asam (PTBA, O, PT Rp25,000): Railway Projects to Materialize
3. CITI : Bank Mandiri (Persero) (BMRI.JK) : Bond Yields and Key Takeaways from Analyst Day
We use DDM to value Indonesian bank stocks. Our target price for BMRI of Rp7,650 uses a 2012E DPS of Rp197. We assume that BMRI will maintain a 35% payout ratio and 14% ustainable growth. We use a sustainable growth rate of 14% due to an improving asset mix and the bank's strategy of growing both loans and deposits. Our cost of equity assumption is 16.4%, based on a 9.7% risk-free rate. This is avg. of low of 6.4% and 2008-09 high risk period of 13.3% and a beta of 1.15x (1-year historic). Our target price implies a 2012E P/E of 13.6x and 2012E P/B of 2.5x.
4. CIMB : Bank Mandiri (BMRI.IJ/BMRI.JK) :
No.2in micro lending by 2014
- Mandiri is steadfast about capturing more share in the micro and retailmarkets.Indeed,while negative market sentiments about yieldand asset quality continue to pressure its share price, we believe its core business provides some upside.
- Mandiri has underperformed the market by 8% YTD, particularly after the heavy corrections over the past one week on the back of apparent market fears of lower yields. We maintain our OUTPERFORM call and target price of Rp9,400 (GGM, ROE: 22%, CoE: 16.2%, g: 12.7%).
- CIMB mempertahankan rating Bank Mandiri (BMRI) pada OUTPERFORM dengan target harga Rp9400. BMRI saat ini cukup gencar untuk masuk ke pasar mikro dan retail. Kredit mikro di BMRI tumbuh 60% yoy pada 2011 dan sekitar 4% dari total loan, dan menyumbang 14% dari NIM. Rencana BMRI adalah menjadi pemimpin kredit mikro no 2 pada 2014. Manajemen mengatakan kredit pada 2011 tumbuh 27% yoy dengan NPL pada 2.5%. Sentimen pasar yang negative saat ini terhadap yield dan asset quality terus menekan harga sahamnya, setelah investor global mengurangi kepemilikan di saham perbankan Indonesia. Kami melihat ini sebagai kesempatan untuk membeli apalagi core business BMRI meyakinkan.
5. CLSA : Indonesian Cement (Sector Outlook).
INTP : BUY with 26% upside to our TP
We re-initiate INTP with a BUY and TP of Rp21,000/sh. We expect INTP to book the highest profit growth for 2012 vspeers given its relatively stable margin, and higher expected sales volume growth due to excess capacity.
INTP is trading at an attractive valuation vs peers, at 14.3x PE12 and 12.0x PE13, at the middle range of its PE and PB bands.
SMGR : “Underperform”: 6% upside to our TP of Rp12,000/sh
We re-initiate SMGR with an U-PF call with TP Rp12,000/sh, given our arguments above. SMGR now trades at premium vs peersgiven a strong performance last year, at 16.5x PE12 and 14.4x PE13. Indocementis trading at 14.3x PE12 and 12.0x PE13. HolcimIndo is trading at 14.9x PE12 and 12.1x PE13. SMGR is also trading at the upper ends of its PEand PB bands.
IHSG
INTP
BMRI
BBRI
BBNI
ITMG
HRUM
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